INSIDE THE ODDS: LOOKING AT THE LIV GOLF TULSA FIELD
May 9, 2023 - 7:03 PMWritten by: Nick Tedeschi, Champion Data Golf Analyst
Here is some statistical analysis for LIV Golf Tulsa, based on a closer look at the individual and team odds for the sixth event of the 2023 season, provided by Champion Data.
Individual Contenders
Cameron Smith (+1200)
2023 Finishes: 6-26-29-4-7
The Open Champion has finished Top 7 in his last two starts in Australia and Singapore but never really contended in either. Not the longest hitter - ranking midfield in that statistic -while his 12% bogey rate, sub-60% fairways hit and and sub-70% greens hit. Tee-to-green form may not be good enough here.
Verdict: This is probably not a course for Cam to return to the winner’s circle
Brooks Koepka (+1200)
2023 Finishes: 31-29-1-19-3
Four-time major winner whose recent form has been exceptional. Won LIV Golf Orlando, was right in the mix at Singapore and held the 54-hole lead at Augusta with his only blip being a fade in Adelaide. He can get the ball off the tee and can find greens and avoid bogeys. Only concern is his 60% accuracy from the tee.
Verdict: Take him on at your own peril
Dustin Johnson (+1400)
2023 Finishes: 37-13-7-10-25
Johnson has the game to suit, ranking second in distance off the tee and top five in Greens In Regulation. While this will not be a putting contest, his form on the greens hasn't been great lately, with 1.64 putts per round. Not playing well enough to consider at the short price.
Verdict: Has the game but form too big a concern
Talor Gooch (+1400)
2023 Finishes: 14-14-18-1-1
Gooch made history by being the first player to win back-to-back LIV events in Adelaide and Singapore and can become the first player to win three events if he was to succeed in Tulsa. Accurate from the tee, finds greens at 74% and ranks second in Bogey Avoidance. No marks against him other than his driving distance.
Verdict: Would stun if he wasn’t livin’ on Tulsa time
Patrick Reed (+1600)
2023 Finishes: 38-18-4-3-14
Reed’s form has been excellent of late with Top 4 finishes in both Orlando and Adelaide as well as at The Masters. All-around game has been solid across the board this year and that might serve him well on a very difficult course.
Verdict: Not a top selection but afford him a chance
Joaquin Niemann (+1700)
2023 Finishes: 11-37-33-30-10
Form has fallen off for Joaquin Niemann, who has just two Top 30 finishes this year with a best finish of 10th in Singapore. Can belt it off the tee, but 58% driving accuracy is a worry.
Verdict: Severely under the odds in all markets
Mito Pereira (+1700)
2023 Finishes: 16-6-6-27-5
His recent form has been excellent, with top 6 finishes in three of the last four events. Maybe the best guide for this course is Southern Hills and Pereira had the 2022 PGA Championship won until a final-hole stumble. Ranks 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in Driving Distance, 1st in GOR and Top 5 in Scrambling. Massive chance to play well and finish high.
Verdict: Standout top selection with an outstanding profile and form on similar courses
Abraham Ancer (+2000)
2023 Finishes: 17-28-30-20-47
Played collegiately at Oklahoma but has a few things going against him here. His form this year hasn't been great, with no Top 15 finishes and coming in second to last in Singapore. He lacks distance from the tee. And his 16% bogey avoidance rate is bottom 10.
Verdict: Pass on him this week
Peter Uihlein (+2300)
2023 Finishes: 2-10-8-7-11
No player is playing more consistently than Uihlein, who has finished Top 11 in all five events this year. He is the longest player in the league off the tee and he finds greens but his 13% bogey rate is poor considering the rest of his game and he ranks last in Driving Accuracy. Not here.
Verdict: Playing well but this is a highly unsuitable course
Sergio Garcia (+2300)
2023 Finishes: 26-9-45-14-2
Enjoyed an outstanding Singapore event, going down in a playoff to the white-hot Talor Gooch. His iron game remains elite and he is long enough from the tee, but his lack of accuracy is a concern.
Verdict: Price is about right
The Longshots
Jason Kokrak (+3500)
Form: 19-38-12-11-6
Has won professionally in the area recently. Averaging 303.9 yards off the tee and hits 62% of fairways, a nice combination, and hits 73% of greens.
Verdict: Tremendous value at a big price
Brendan Steele (+4000)
Form: 5-3-37-29-27
Steele started off his LIV career with a bang with two Top 5 finishes, but form has faded since. Game is suitable for here, particularly his Top 5 ranking in Bogey Avoidance. Finds greens and long off the tee.
Verdict: A proven winner who has found a course that suits
Kevin Na (+4000)
Form: 20-8-23-13-21
Finished in the top half of the field in all five LIV events this year. Generally short off the tee but finds fairways, putts well and avoids bogeys.
Verdict: Perennially underrated veteran who is over the odds this week
Team Profiles
| 4ACES GC | 2023 Finishes: 2-2-3-1-9The 4 Aces were on the podium in the opening four events this year and have a commanding lead in the standings. Reed and Uihlein should play well and DJ has the game. Will be favorites but should at least finish Top 4. Verdict: They are much-deserved favorites |
| TORQUE GC | 2023 Finishes: 3-7-1-7-4Mito Pereira is a standout to have a big tournament but taking on the struggling Joaquin Niemann and David Puig is not going well enough. Sebastian Munoz will contribute but no bet at the price. Verdict: Top star is struggling so no bet as a second favorite |
| FIREBALLS GC | 2023 Finishes: 6-1-7-9-2Sergio went within a whisker at Singapore and should perform well here. Abraham Ancer is under the odds but does have form on key correlation courses. Carlos Ortiz going well enough. Not hopeless. Verdict: The team mixes form but they look Top 4 bound this week |
| RANGEGOATS GC | 2023 Finishes: 8-8-8-2-1 Talor Gooch has carried the RangeGoats to top two finishes in Adelaide and Singapore. While we have not seen the best of Bubba Watson, Thomas Pieters or Harold Varner III this year (Varner III’s one Top 10 is the only Top 10 for the trio) there is enough there to see them feature again. Verdict: No value in the price |
| CRUSHERS GC | 2023 Finishes: 1-9-10-5-3Charles Howell III is having a tremendous year with a win and two further Top 8 finishes. While Bryson DeChambeau has had his difficulties this season, his length is a major asset this week. Anirban Lahiri came 2nd in Adelaide. Far from the worst.Verdict: Expecting a Top 6 finish from the Crushers GC this week |
| STINGER GC | 2023 Finishes: 4-4-4-3-10 Stinger has four Top 4 finishes in five events, but this does not look like a great week for them. Dean Burmester is over the odds and Charl Schwartzel is not the worst bet this week, but length of the course caps upside of Louis Oosthuizen. Verdict: Not a winning bet but can sneak another podium finish |
| SMASH GC | 2023 Finishes: 9-10-2-6-5Smash look to set up very well for a big Tulsa tournament. Brooks Koepka is the pick of the favorites and Jason Kokrak is the best of the longshots. Matthew Wolff’s length is important. The only worry is Chase Koepka finishing 39th or worse in four of five events. Verdict: Very keen on them having a top time in Tulsa |
| RIPPER GC | 2023 Finishes: 5-5-12-8-6Australian team that has been a major disappointment this season. Skipper Cameron Smith has been improving but Marc Leishman does not have a Top 15 finish and Matt Jones and Jed Morgan have regularly been in the bottom half. Verdict: Smith raises their floor but they are far too short in betting |
| HYFLYERS GC | 2023 Finishes: 7-6-9-4-8Phil Mickelson has performed well after a great Masters with two straight Top 16 finishes. Brendan Steele is one of the longshots and Cameron Tringale has four straight Top 16 finishes. If James Piot shows up, these guys can find the podium. Verdict: Pick of the longshots |
| IRON HEADS GC | 2023 Finishes: 10-3-11-10-7Sihwan Kim's poor form has hurt the Iron Heads this season. However, Kevin Na should have a good tournament as a longshot bet and Scott Vincent is always underrated.Verdict: Too much pressure on their best three |
| CLEEKS GC | 2023 Finishes: 12-11-5-12-12The Cleeks have finished last in three events including the last two. None of the four have great length off the tee, none of the four are playing particularly well and none of the four are avoiding big scores. Verdict: A fourth last place is on the cards |
| MAJESTICKS GC | 2023 Finishes: 11-12-6-11-11Found a sixth in Orlando but finished bottom two in all four other events. Have a load of veteran talent but it is hard to see Cedar Ridge suiting. Henrik Stenson leads fairways found but they probably won’t be contending. Verdict: Lack the length from the tee needed to contend |
Insights and Analytics provided by Champion Data